Showing posts with label black swans. Show all posts
Showing posts with label black swans. Show all posts

Thursday 24 January 2013

Has Anybody Arrested Leon "Meshugganah" Brittan Yet?



















If Leon Brittan isn't a paedophile he should call me on +66 8 47 33 47 69 or failing that he should/could consider cutting an amnesty deal with reliable [not corrupt] police in return for naming names in the current political paedophile network. We know they are there. We know MI5 and MI6 place them in power and we know they make decisions because of blackmail and influence from Jimmy Savile type figures who move in and out of Royal and Downing Street circles with so much ease and fluidity it is preposterous to suggest they are not codependent on each other in some way shape or form.

David Steel comes out of this badly. He lived in the "Central Station" of political paedophiles  of Pimlico in London called Dolphin Square. It is rumoured he was fond of late night parties but it's his denial he knew anything about Cyril Smith that is most implausible (see his letters scanned above)

William Hague also lived in Dolphin Square and paedophile related questions are outstanding which he has not answered. We want to know how it is possible he didn't know Peter Morrison was a paedophile when Edwina Currie knew and why the investigation into Wrexham children's home sex scandal hit a brick wall with respect to his involvement and Peter Morrison's use of the children there 

Is William Hague a paedophile power elite child abuser and/or concealing acts of paedophilia by the political power elite. 

I've repeatedly asked him but he refuses to answer me. If anything I've written is unfair and needs to be removed then please call me on +66 8 47 33 47 69 or email me using the contact details on this blog.

My view is that if Jimmy Savile could rape children with ease and the British public aren't outraged then the information above will leave them unmoved. Is it mind control? Is Britain the sick man of Europe and unable to come to the aid of its own children?





The noose is beginning to close around the former Tory Home secretary's attendance at child sex parties.

Update: Simon Danczuk has mentioned Leon Brittan's name in a parliamentary committee as the Home Office minister who lost the VIP paedophile report that Geoffrey Dicken's MP presented to him.



Saturday 19 January 2013

Today's Liberals Would Have Walked On By A Bleeding Martin Luther King




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Christopher Hitchens talked about moving to America because of the inspiration of Martin Luther King and the emancipation of the American woman a while back in an interview I watched of him debating religion. I realised then I'd underestimated MLK and this interview by comrade Eric Draitser of Stop Imperialism with Professor Tony Monteiro hammers it home. 

MLK was a revolutionary and I like him all the more for it. I will find more of what he had to say about the toxic military industrial complex now I know he was just as passionate about equality and justice everywhere. The exact opposite of the values of the American war machine that feeds a decadent and fatally malignant tumour on the planet.

Sunday 7 August 2011

Black Swans & Fallen Angels

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If you haven't read The Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb it's the most erudite permission-to-believe-in-the-unexpected book I've read. Intellectually it opened up my mind to the potential of radical possibility and so I started to think my analysis of Capitalism might have some validity and rejected the whole model of senseless consumption via fiat currencies, floated on derivative trading, lorded over by globalised slave labour while hacking down forests, depleting oceans and strip mining mother Earth's crust.

His first book Fooled By Randomness is in my opinion an even better read but the reason for posting this tonight is I believe that an overdue economic collapse is under way. I know I said that in 2008, and yes it was premature (and wishful thinking, the dollar is one tough cockroach) but I wasn't wrong about the unquestioned venal greed of the system. 



All around the world ordinary people are increasingly uncomfortable with a paradigm that is destroying the planet, poisoning our environment and fuelling a superficial worship of materialist-science as saviour, slavish tech-fetishm and contemptuous poverty-blindness. It's a religion with it's own callous Gods no superior to the Jehovahs of the old Testament.

I don't know if tomorrow is going to be the long overdue market bloodbath of a system that isn't sustainable but I welcome its impending demise, and the potential for transformational change in how we see ourselves as a species and the planet as a living being.

If anyone in Bangkok wishes a hardback copy of the The Black Swan, I have a hard copy I've read twice and no longer need.

Sunday 30 March 2008

Steamed Buns & Hip Kids (Past and Future)


There's no need to throw out the past to embrace the future. The past is part of our fabric and contributes to our future. If we hide from history and pretend it didn't happen, history disrupts our future happiness. Coming to terms with the past is part of growing up.

I've finally moved out of the dreadful serviced apartment environment to a 2000 year old (rebuilt) Courtyard House by the Forbidden city and I'm loving the sheer history of it all. The peace and quiet of the neighbourhood really appeals; particularly the birdsong in the morning. I only knew I'd missed real twitters once I'd heard it again. Anyway I've always wanted to live only a stone's throw from Tiananmen Square.


Close by is a traditional shop that sells the freshest steam buns and dumpling soup I've had since I've been here, in an environment that is proper Beijing. I much prefer this type of restaurant to the luxury ones so often preferred by the expat community over here.


Some old boy takes that hulking dough and kneads it old-school-stylee into the right consistency by hand. He looks like he's been doing it for decades.


It doesn't take much of an imagination with B&W photography to visualize being back in the past, to a time when secrets were whispered in darkened alley ways for fear of public humiliation from the Party during the naming and shaming episodes of the cultural revolution, or perhaps the rarely mentioned Great Leap Forward which people from the West will know more about than many under 30 who are local.


So to provide some contrast to my morning steamed buns and dumpling soup (cost: 1 1/2 Euros) We did a bit of a Xidan run again on Saturday and I'm starting to like the scruffier shopping mall with mad T Shirts that aren't always trying to be so hip, but because of the sheer volume and variety of output that China produces, sometimes score a Black Swan for creativity and luck on the most random of details such as words and spelling, or Kitsch design serendipity.


Again these Beijing youngster are terribly endearing and for me constitute the really nice side of the people in this wonderful city. There is a naivety there, but as you can see it's not always incongruous with having personality or their own style.


Maybe we should get some of these folk into the agency ASAP because I'm starting to feel the pain of not hearing about creativity or ideas in four months, while definitely seeing it constantly outside the confines of the agency walls. These kids are the future and China is going to be a wonderful place for it. That I'm confident of.

Thursday 27 March 2008

Big Dog Beta (Early Big Dog Robot Testing)

If you haven't seen my post titled DARPA first, then I really recommend you go over here and watch this before checking out the video below. This is why the internet and citizen/indigenous content were made for each other.




Wednesday 2 January 2008

Burn Down The TV Stations



This is pretty much what I've been advocating for the new advertising agency business model in my post over here and first aired over here. Its gets simpler the more I see people explain what I'm trying to attempt as it becomes more self evident of where we are heading.

Roughly speaking, ditch the interruptive messaging and get experimental/useful/collaborative across lots and lots of relevant communities in Lo Fi - Also be prepared to fail plenty and as a consequence succeed more demonstrably by embracing the upside of risk. Lo Fi is the new Hi Fi. Collective participation is more authentic than corporate brand synthesis. As audiences get smarter, the big switch comes closer. Its just a matter of time.

By way of the impressive Johnnie Moore

Wednesday 10 October 2007

White Swans

I've been borderline garrulous recently about a potential new model for the marketing communications business which is classic recombinant culture theory that I nicked off Faris. It would take some balls from an agency and even more from their respective clients to seriously implement but in principle it's about mixing and remixing some transmedia planning along with fair chunks of the book, The Black Swan which I talked about at length here.

To save a wee bit on time I want to cut and paste from that post:

"Our view of history is always explaining backwards as best we can. This is a linear approach that cauterizes the true story. Even more breathtaking is the idea that viewing history by working backwards is a fallacy, because history is actually always moving forward."

I ran this by Johnnie Moore the other night (you should check out his ace podcasts) at The Endurance pub in Soho while Piers was in town, and without even ruminating for a second, Johnnie cheerfully fired back that Kierkegaard wrote something similar as follows:

"Life is understood backwards, but is lived forwards"

This was the first seductive simplification that knocked me for six, and I scribbled it down quick on my hand because I knew it was, as are many of Johnnie's thoughts and occasional silences on lots of stuff, really important. It was lovely to see the ink on my skin the next day to remind me to give him a shout about it. I just did. Thanks Johnnie :)

So it's not like I've really discovered anything new, or I'm responsible for inventing anything seminal, but earlier today, as once again I ran the thoughts I've been bundling together on "transmedia-planning-meets-black-swan-mashup" by a generously attentive listener who works in the strategy game, she encapsulated the bit about The Black Swan that takes ages to explain. Describing narrative fallacy and how it leads to the illusion of predicatability that many draw from so called dependable data is not easy, and is actually probably just me trying to be too smart for my own good, but in essence Tania my listener, chipped in and captured the thrust of my long monologue with a lovely expression which she and her colleagues call 'the upside of risk'.

That made for two very seductive simplifications.

That'll do for the time being as I've still got lots of things about China that I'm practically bursting to blog about. So in the spirit of some timely recombinant culture media here is that White Swan I saw walking down the road in Marlow. The file wouldn't open from the Sony mobile phone when transfered to a Sony Vaio PC which Rob has nothing to do with, so instead, I've squirted a Nokia N95 mobile phone video on to it. I may come back and rotate it to portrait, if I find someone who can actually do important stuff like that, but in the meantime here's a White Swan doing a 'Black Swan'. Or put another way, a bird walking down a street that is right up mine.

Saturday 12 May 2007

The Black Swan



It often feels that planning likes to assume the role of being responsible for great advertising. The truth is more often than not, it helps to improve the efficacy of advertising which is a different thing all together. For evidence of this you can take a look at the next 50 advertisements you see starting from right now. Did anything blow you away about those highly targeted and planning intense executions (comments below)? There's a disconnect there and it's largely resolved by taking a closer look between life as we imagine it and life as it really is.

Black Swans really is an anarchical and brilliant book. I use that word 'brilliant' sparingly when referring to think- pieces and of course more generously when people suggest a quality pub or bar I hadn't thought of to meet up in. This book by Nassim Nicholas Taleb a former derivative trader turned professor (who urges us to distrust people with ties) has been nagging me for sometime and only today listening to the author on Tech Nation Podcasts did I hear the essence of the book that I could encapsulate in a post. On one level it's about interpreting failure differently and is supportive of the idea that embracing failure is a good thing. The title of the book however does need careful attention. It comes from Karl Popper's assertion that it only takes one black swan to undermine the statement that 'all swans are white'.

In a nutshell we would definitely describe Google as a positive black swan. It came out of nowhere to achieve world dominance. I remember clearly the day when the email recommending Google's superiority was sent round by the new IT guy at Howell Henry. It was put simply, a better search engine. Absolutely nobody could have predicted how huge they would become. A negative black swan example would be Lloyds Insurance whereby a seemingly stable business made it's very rich investors and 'names' liable to bankruptcy overnight. Banking and Insurance are negative black swans (that Taleb says hire dull people and make them look even more dull than they are) because while on the surface they appear to be stable businesses, they are subject to forces that can sink them, as mentioned just now with Lloyds when it was forced to deal with asbestos claims in the 80's.

At the heart of the book is the theme of trend prediction and certainty which is surely as close to the output of a planner as can be sought. It should teach us to be a little more humble about our glaring weakness for as the WSJ puts it; confirmation bias (our tendency to reaffirm our beliefs rather than contradict them), narrative fallacy (our weakness for compelling stories), silent evidence (our failure to account for what we don't see), ludic fallacy (our willingness to oversimplify and take games or models too seriously), and epistemic arrogance (our habit of overestimating our knowledge and underestimating our ignorance).

A point that is raised nicely in the podast is to picture a small pool of water on a table. We have no evidence to show that it came from an ice cube or even more inspiring that the ice cube was carved and shaped into a small figure before it melted. Out view of history is always explaining backwards as best we can. This is a linear approach that cauterizes the true story. Even more breathtakingly is the idea that viewing history by working backwards is a fallacy because history is actually always moving forward. This is where the brilliance of Dr Nassim Nicholas Taleb excels. It's a huge thought and one that undermines a lot of people in suits and ties and uniforms that get it wrong.

The author of this book is not so much showing us a way to predict events as showing us a challenge to the the myopic and causal way of examining history to predict the future. If anything it's the good doctors advice to be sceptical of things that matter, and equally so, to not be sceptical of things we can do nothing about. I urge you to listen to the podcast if nothing else.